Forecasting to Ride the Waves of Change: The Next Decade of Ocean Science

As policymakers and science practitioners, we face mounting challenges that demand foresight. A new Decadal Survey report from the National Academies of Sciences, "Forecasting the Ocean: The 2025-2035 Decade of Ocean Science", lays out a vision to improve ocean forecasting—critical for informing policy on climate, ecosystem management, and disaster preparedness. Developed with insights from scientists and ocean communities, the Survey report helps guide the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) investments in ocean science for the next decade.

NSF’s Division of Ocean Sciences is the primary funding source for basic ocean research in the U.S. via competitive grants to universities and research institutions supporting investigator-driven studies, oceanographic expeditions, and infrastructure like research vessels. Other sources of federal funding for ocean science include that from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which focuses on applied research tied to resource management, weather, and climate monitoring; United States Geological Survey (USGS), for marine geology and coastal environments; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), largely for satellite-based ocean studies, and the United States Navy for science aligned with their operations.

Science That Meets Urgent Societal Needs

Basic research forms the core of the NSF's programming and this work of collecting data and resolving key processes is foundational to addressing key global challenges. "Forecasting the Ocean" presents a grand scientific challenge: improving our ability to forecast climate-related oceanic changes, ecosystem resilience, and extreme events.

Around 30% of emitted carbon dioxide and 90% of greenhouse heating is currently absorbed by the ocean[1], but this storage capacity will likely decline as carbon emissions continue to grow. How that unfolds will influence global weather and climate, rates of ice sheet melt, and how the ocean responds to deliberate efforts to enhance its sequestration of atmospheric carbon (marine carbon dioxide removal, or mCDR). Forecasting these changes will help inform policy going forward. 

While heat, carbon, excess nutrients and other pollutants are being pumped into the ocean, marine ecosystems are reorganizing in complex ways. If we can better understand how species and systems are migrating and evolving alongside natural and human-caused changes, we can improve ecosystem forecasting. Improved ecosystem forecasting can support sustainable fisheries and help us adaptively manage the preservation of life for nature’s own invaluable sake.

For extreme events, enhanced predictive capabilities will help us better prepare for the storms, droughts, heatwaves, even earthquakes that are directly and indirectly connected to ocean and seafloor processes. 

Collectively this knowledge will strengthen our understanding of where potential tipping points in our climate and biological systems lie, and how to safeguard the nutritional, economic, and cultural enrichment the ocean provides—particularly for those 40% of Americans living in coastal communities[2].

A Transdisciplinary Approach to Ocean Science

Most geoscience academics recognize that effective science requires systemic thinking, but we're rarely trained or incentivized to work beyond our specialties, integrate social science, or partner with business and tech—let alone with local and indigenous knowledge holders.

Imagine a collaboratively developed research program where an artificial intelligence specialist designs tools to identify areas of rapid species migration, a community knowledge holder shares history of local interactions with those species, and DNA experts and physical oceanographers explore genetic adaptations and model environmental changes. When all contributors are well-equipped (including tech platforms, ships, and other infrastructure) and empowered to build upon each other's insights, our understanding of ocean dynamics becomes more comprehensive and actionable.

The concept of transdisciplinarity isn't new, but today's challenges make it more essential than ever. We need many tools, people, and industries connected and engaged, thoughtfully and responsibly. Our science must truly become greater than the sum of its parts.

Expanding Participation

"All hands on deck" is a key theme in the Decadal Survey report. For future marine science to be transformative and solutions-oriented, we must value all relevant skills and backgrounds. While talent is evenly distributed, training, access, and opportunity are not—nor are the knowledge and entrepreneurial opportunities associated with oceanic research. "Forecasting the Ocean" examines the investments needed in the ocean science workforce to meet these issues head-on.

For science to effectively inform policy, we must integrate ocean forecasting into climate resilience strategies, disaster preparedness planning, and environmental management decisions. The Decadal Survey of Ocean Sciences provides a roadmap for investments that will strengthen our ability to predict and adapt to ocean-driven changes. As we navigate an era of uncertainty, prioritizing these scientific advances is essential for ensuring national security, environmental sustainability, and economic prosperity.

Read the full report or highlights here. 

Image: Marek Okon, Unsplash

Author

Shannon Valley was a 2022-23 AAAS Science & Technology Policy Fellow, placed at the U.S. Agency for International Development. She is a co-author of "Forecasting the Ocean, The 2025-2035 Decade of Ocean Science".

Editor

Sharmini Pitter Boghos, Ph.D., Environmental Earth System Science and Archaeology 
2023-2025 Executive Branch Fellow at the U.S. National Science Foundation 
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Andrew Czeidinski, Ph.D.
2023-2025 Executive Branch Fellow at the U.S. National Science Foundation